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Superforecasting - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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A number of people participated in an IARPA tournament that encouraged forecasters to update forecasts in real time. The top performers on the 2,800 tournament were categorized as superforecasters based on their Brier score. The collective Brier score of superforecasters was 0.25, compared with a score of 0.37 for other forecasters. Some discussed superforecasters included Doug Lorch, Bill Flack, and Sanford Sillman (an atmospheric scientist). Superforecasters even performed” 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read secret data.

Posted on November 27, 2015

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